Mortgage rates today, June 12, and rate forecasts for next week

Today’s Mortgage and Refinance Rates

Average mortgage rates fell yesterday, a possibility we had anticipated. But the drop was larger than expected. And they are now at their lowest level in over a month.

My best guess is that mortgage rates could rise slightly next week. But they are currently inherently unpredictable. So it’s really a guess, based on nothing more that rebounds are common after the kind of crashes we’ve seen this week.

Find and lock in a low rate (June 12, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

Find and Lock a Low Rate (Jun 12, 2021)

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COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders change rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest information on the impact of the coronavirus on your home loan, click here.

Should you lock in a mortgage rate today?

While this week is relatively good for mortgage rates, I will lock in again soon. But not a day when these rates are likely to fall.

Yes, this week’s moves have widened the narrow range in which rates have moved recently. But the benefits of floating are, in my opinion, still slim compared to the risks.

And that’s why my personal recommendations remain:

• LOCK if the closure 7 days
• LOCK if the closure 15 days
• LOCK if the closure 30 days
• LOCK if the closure 45 days
• LOCK if closing 60 days

However, with so much uncertainty right now, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine, if not better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.

What changes current mortgage rates

Last week, I noticed that the markets had not reacted as usual to the report on the employment situation. And, this week, I should report that the anomaly continued in their response to the Consumer Price Index.

It seems that investors are still ready to accept the Federal Reserve’s analysis of the price increase. The Fed believes the hikes are transient and won’t force it to raise interest rates or cut asset purchases sooner than expected.

If the Fed is right, that will be good news for mortgage borrowers. Because those asset purchases currently include $ 40 billion per month in mortgage-backed securities. And they keep mortgage rates artificially low.

However, if the Fed gets it wrong and has to cut back on its asset purchases early on, it risks spiking mortgage rates.

Fed credit

It is therefore good that the Fed remains credible with investors. But voices contesting his analyzes are increasing. Yesterday, the Washington Post explained:

Despite the highest inflation since the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve is continuing the easy money approach it took last year to avert a depression pandemic. … But some notable critics warn that scorching inflation could instead feed on itself, ultimately forcing the Fed to put the brakes on by raising interest rates. This could curb the rise in prices, but only at the cost of plunging the United States into another recession and destabilizing the global economy by forcing many foreign investors and borrowers to absorb punitive losses.

– WaPo, “The rise in prices in the United States could shake other countries in a context of uneven global recovery” (paywall) June 11, 2021

The last time the Fed tried to “put the brakes” in 2013, mortgage rates skyrocketed.

A little good news

But, in recent days, the financial media have started to report a new phenomenon. And that could help moderate any future mortgage rate hikes.

It seems that the weak dollar is attracting more foreign investors. Let’s see why.

Suppose you are a UK investor based in the City of London. Over the past two years, £ 1million (GB pounds) would have bought you on average about $ 1,280,000. But on average so far in 2021, that would buy you $ 1,390,000. So the weaker dollar has made investing in America more attractive: because you have more for your… uh, pound.

Meanwhile, a 10-year ‘gilt’ (the UK name for what we call a Treasury bill or note) returned 0.711% yesterday. And, on the same day, a 10-year US Treasury bill was earning 1.453%. You don’t need a Nobel Prize in Economics to understand why UK and foreign investors turn to US Treasuries.

How this could affect mortgage rates

Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) are also bonds. And they generally mirror 10-year US Treasuries. So if enough foreign investors accumulate in these notes and MBS, it could dampen the rise in mortgage rates.

Today, it is not yet clear to what extent foreign investors are already keeping mortgage rates low. Nor how much their influence could grow. But, with most experts predicting higher mortgage rates, it’s good to have a straw to hold onto.

Economic reports next week

If the markets ignored the economic reports for the past two weeks – which included those on jobs and inflation, two topics that obsess over investors – will they care much about next week’s reports?

Who knows? But the major reports are all due out on Tuesday. This sees May data for retail sales, the producer price index and industrial production.

But the others listed below are unlikely to cause much movement in the markets unless they include some incredibly good or bad data. Plus, regular readers will know that the markets have ignored most of the economic reports in recent weeks. Thus, the effects of the following may be different from normal:

• Tuesday – May Retail sales, producer price index and industrial production
• Wednesday – May Building permits and starts
• Thursday – May index of leading economic indicators. No more new weekly unemployment insurance claims until June 12

So Tuesday is the big day.

Find and lock in a low rate (June 12, 2021)

Mortgage interest rate forecasts for next week

There is often a slight rebound in mortgage rates after the declines we’ve seen this week. But the markets are so bizarre right now that any forecasting is necessarily speculative. Yet my best guess has to be that mortgage rates could go up a bit next week.

Mortgage and refinancing rates generally move in tandem. But be aware that refinancing rates are currently a little higher than those for purchase mortgages. This spread is likely to remain fairly constant as they change.

Meanwhile, a recent regulatory change has made most mortgages for investment property and vacation homes more expensive.

How your mortgage interest rate is determined

Mortgage and refinance rates are generally determined by prices in a secondary market (similar to stock or bond markets) where mortgage-backed securities are traded.

And it depends heavily on the economy. So mortgage rates tend to be high when things are going well and low when the economy is struggling.

Your part

But you play an important role in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. You can significantly affect it by:

1. Find Your Best Mortgage Rate – They Vary Dramatically From Lender to Lender
2. Increase Your Credit Score – Even a Small Bump Can Make a Big Difference in Your Rate and Payments
3. Save the Biggest Down Payment Possible – Lenders love you to have real skin in this game
4. Keep your other loans small – The lower your other monthly commitments, the larger the mortgage you can afford
5. Choosing Your Mortgage Carefully – Are You Better With A Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, Jumbo Or Other Loan?

Time spent lining up these ducks can earn you lower rates.

Remember, it’s not just a mortgage rate

Be sure to count all of your upcoming homeownership costs when determining how much mortgage you can afford. So focus on your “PITI” This is your Pmain (reimburses the amount you borrowed), Iinterest (the loan price), (property) Taxes, and (owners) Iinsurance. Our mortgage calculator can help.

Depending on the type of mortgage you have and the amount of your down payment, you may also need to pay for mortgage default insurance. And that can easily reach three digits each month.

But there are other potential costs. You will therefore have to pay homeowners association dues if you choose to live somewhere with an HOA. And, wherever you live, you should expect repair and maintenance costs. There is no owner to call in case of a problem!

Finally, you will have a hard time forgetting the closing costs. You can see which are reflected in the Annual Percentage Rate (APR) that will be shown to you. Because it effectively spreads them out over the life of your loan, making it higher than your normal mortgage rate.

But you may be able to get help with those closing costs. and your down payment, especially if you are a first-time buyer. Lily:

Down payment assistance programs in each state for 2021

Mortgage rate methodology

Mortgage Reports receive daily rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners. We arrive at an average rate and an APR for each type of loan to display in our graph. Because we average a range of rates, it gives you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we average the rates for the same types of loans. For example, fixed FHA with fixed FHA. The end result is a good overview of the daily rates and how they have changed over time.